As 2026 kicks off, Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery after a rough end to 2025. Trading around $91,500, the world's largest cryptocurrency has rebounded from late-November lows near $80,000. Analysts at Wall Street brokerage Bernstein are calling it: the market has likely bottomed, and an extended bull run lies ahead, fueled by institutional adoption and a coming "tokenization supercycle."
Why Bernstein Believes the Bottom Is In
In their latest report released on January 7, 2026, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani expressed "reasonable confidence" that Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market have reached their cyclical low. Despite a 30%+ drawdown in Q4 2025 that saw BTC drop from October highs above $126,000, key fundamentals held strong.
Notably, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs remained minimal—just a few percent—even during the sell-off. This resilience highlights the shift from retail speculation to institutional dominance. "Market concerns about the traditional 4-year halving cycle peaking in 2025 are unwarranted," the analysts wrote, pointing out that institutional demand is rewriting the rules.
Bitcoin closed 2025 down about 6%, but crypto-related equities posted average gains of nearly 59%, underscoring the sector's maturing appeal to traditional investors.
Price Targets: $150,000 by End of 2026, $200,000 Cycle Peak in 2027
Bernstein is sticking to its bullish outlook, forecasting Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, with a potential cycle high of $200,000 in 2027. Longer-term, the firm sees BTC hitting $1 million by 2033.
These targets are driven by several structural growth drivers:
Institutional inflows — Spot ETFs continue to attract billions, with wirehouses and RIAs integrating Bitcoin exposure.
Tokenization boom — Real-world assets (RWA) on blockchain are expected to more than double from $37 billion in 2025 to $80 billion in 2026, led by equities and other traditional assets moving on-chain.
Stablecoin expansion — Total supply projected to surge 56% to $420 billion, powered by cross-border payments, remittances, and integrations with fintech giants like PayPal, Block, and Revolut.
Prediction markets — Volumes could double to $70 billion, boosted by platforms like Polymarket gaining regulatory clarity.
The analysts describe 2026 as the start of a "tokenization supercycle," transforming capital markets and payments in ways that extend the bull market beyond historical patterns.
What’s Fueling This Extended Bull Run?
Unlike past cycles tied strictly to halving events and retail FOMO, today's market is underpinned by institutional forces. Pro-crypto policies in the U.S., including discussions around a strategic Bitcoin reserve, add tailwinds. Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI data centers and broader blockchain adoption in Ethereum, Solana, and DeFi further support the thesis.
Bernstein calls it a "long and exhausting" bull market—one that rewards patience over quick flips.
How Does This Compare to Other Forecasts?
Bernstein isn't alone in its optimism. Standard Chartered also targets $150,000 for 2026 (down from prior higher calls due to slower ETF flows). Grayscale anticipates a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
On the cautious side, some at Fundstrat and Fidelity warn of potential consolidation in the $65,000–$75,000 range if macro conditions cool. Prediction markets like Polymarket currently give only 20-25% odds for $150,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting trader skepticism amid recent volatility.
Implications for Investors
If Bernstein's call proves accurate, Bitcoin offers over 60% upside from current levels to $150,000 in just one year. The firm recommends exposure through crypto-linked stocks as the best proxies for the tokenization theme: Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN), Figure (FIGR), and Circle (CRCL). MicroStrategy (MSTR) is also flagged for outsized returns as BTC rebounds.
After a challenging close to 2025, the crypto market enters 2026 with renewed institutional conviction. Dips like the recent one may indeed be buying opportunities, as Bernstein argues. While volatility remains a constant in crypto, the fundamentals point to a prolonged uptrend—potentially making 2026 and 2027 banner years for Bitcoin believers.
About Maya Sterling
Maya Sterling is a senior crypto journalist at MemeMoonNews, covering Bitcoin, macro trends, and the regulatory forces shaping digital asset markets. Her reporting focuses on separating market signal from noise, with clear analysis of institutional moves, policy decisions, and long-term crypto adoption. Maya is known for a calm, fact-driven approach that cuts through hype and delivers context investors can trust.
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